New Zealand Election Nears Final Count as National Leads Labour and Coalition Holds One Seat
New Zealand has voted in one of the closest elections in a generation, and the result is still not settled. With 91.2 per cent of voting places counted, the governing National Party holds a narrow lead over Labour in the preliminary count. National has 29.4 per cent of the party vote against 29.1 per cent for Labour. On the Electoral Commission seat projection, National wins 41 seats, ACT wins 13 and New Zealand First wins 12, giving the governing coalition 66 of the 129 seats in Parliament. That is a majority of just one seat, since 65 are needed to govern. More than 172,000 special votes are still to be counted, and the official results will not be declared until 27 November.
Quick Facts
| Detail | Result |
|---|---|
| Party vote, National | 29.4 per cent |
| Party vote, Labour | 29.1 per cent |
| Party vote, Greens | 13.3 per cent, a record |
| Party vote, ACT | 11.0 per cent, a record |
| Party vote, New Zealand First | 9.8 per cent |
| Party vote, Opportunity Party | 5.9 per cent, enters Parliament for the first time |
| Party vote, Te Pati Maori | 0.6 per cent, but five electorate seats won |
| Seat projection, governing coalition | 66 of 129 seats, a majority of one |
| Seat projection, opposition | Labour 35, Greens 16, Te Pati Maori 5, a total of 56 |
| Opportunity Party seats | 7 |
| Special votes still to count | More than 172,000 |
| Official results date | 27 November |
| Polls closed | 7pm local time, Saturday 7 November |
| Final pre-election poll | Labour 30.7 per cent, National 26.4 per cent |
A Night That Kept Changing
This was not an election that settled early. The count moved back and forth all night, and at times the two main parties were almost level. When 40 per cent of voting places had been counted, Labour was in front of National by 29.88 per cent to 29.35 per cent. By the time 60 per cent of the vote had been counted, National had moved back ahead, leading Labour by 29.4 per cent to 29.3 per cent. The race stayed tight through the rest of the night, and the final party vote gap between the two main parties is only 0.3 of a percentage point.
Labour went into election day ahead in the final pre-election poll, which put Labour on 30.7 per cent and National on 26.4 per cent. On the night itself, National did better than that poll suggested and Labour did worse. Readers who followed the count can see how the picture shifted in our earlier report on Labour leading National at 40 per cent counted, and again in our update on the deadlocked count at 60 per cent. Each stage of the night gave a different leader, which is why nobody on either side could claim victory with confidence.
How the Coalition Reached 66 Seats
The seat projection from the Electoral Commission gives the governing coalition a working majority, but only just. National is projected to win 41 seats, ACT 13 seats and New Zealand First 12 seats. Together that adds up to 66 seats in a Parliament of 129 seats. Since 65 seats are needed to govern, the coalition holds a majority of a single seat.
A one seat majority is the thinnest kind of win. It means the government can pass its laws, but it cannot afford to lose a single vote. A single defection or a single absence can turn a win into a loss. That reality will shape how the coalition governs if the projection holds through the final count.
The opposition is projected to hold 56 seats: Labour 35, the Greens 16 and Te Pati Maori five. The remaining seven seats belong to the centrist Opportunity Party, which has won enough of the party vote to enter Parliament for the first time. Those seven seats sit between the two blocs, and neither side has a comfortable cushion. The seat projection shifted through the night, just as the party vote did, so the projection of 66 seats for the coalition should be read as a lead, not as a settled outcome.
The Smaller Parties That Shaped the Result
The big story of the night may not be the two main parties at all. It may be the smaller parties, which recorded some of their best results ever and changed the shape of Parliament. The Greens won 13.3 per cent of the party vote, a record for the party. ACT won 11.0 per cent, also a record. New Zealand First won 9.8 per cent. The Opportunity Party won 5.9 per cent, enough to enter Parliament for the first time and to win seven seats.
Between them, the Greens, ACT, New Zealand First and the Opportunity Party won close to 40 per cent of the party vote. That is a large share of the electorate choosing a smaller party as its first preference, and it means the smaller parties have real bargaining power when governments are formed.
Te Pati Maori is the most unusual case of the night. The party polled only 0.6 per cent of the party vote, which on its own would not be enough to win a seat. But it won five electorate seats, and under New Zealand rules winning an electorate seat brings a party into Parliament. Those five seats make Te Pati Maori a real force in the opposition, even though its party vote share was tiny.
ACT leader David Seymour called it a record result for his party, and he was right. ACT has never won 11.0 per cent of the party vote before. Seymour was careful not to claim more than the night allowed, saying, “It is going to take some time before it becomes clear.”
Senior Figures Facing Defeat
Election nights are not only about party totals. They are also about individual seats, and this one brought bad news for some of the most senior figures in the government. Finance Minister Nicola Willis and Defence Minister Paul Goldsmith all but conceded their electorate seats. Speaker Gerry Brownlee was also among the senior figures set to lose his seat.
Losing an electorate seat does not always end a political career, because senior politicians can return to Parliament on their party list. But it is still a personal blow, and it shows how local contests can run against the national trend.
Why the Result Is Still Not Final
The most important number in this election may be one that has not been counted yet. More than 172,000 special votes are not included in the election night count. Special votes include votes cast outside a voter home electorate, votes cast overseas, and votes cast by people who enrolled late. They are counted after election night, and they have a history of favouring the left.
If the special votes follow their usual pattern, they could narrow the gap between National and Labour, and they could move the seat projection. A shift of even one seat would change the coalition majority from one seat to no majority at all. The official results will be declared on 27 November, and only then will New Zealand know for certain which parties hold how many seats.
The same caution applies to the party vote figures. The figures of 29.4 per cent for National and 29.1 per cent for Labour were reported after 86 per cent of voting places had reported, while the overall count had reached 91.2 per cent. The numbers moved through the night as more votes were added, and they may move again when the special votes are counted.
What the Leaders Said on the Night
Labour leader Chris Hipkins spoke to his supporters with a message that mixed defiance and patience. He told them Labour was “not going anywhere” and called for cooperation, compromise and unity. Hipkins did not concede the election, and he did not claim it either. He left the door open for the final count to change the picture.
David Seymour, the ACT leader, was similarly careful. He called the result a record for ACT, which it is, but he also said, “It is going to take some time before it becomes clear.” ACT has every reason to be pleased with 11.0 per cent of the party vote and 13 projected seats, but Seymour knows that a one seat coalition majority is fragile, and that the special votes could still move the numbers.
The mood on the night was therefore unusual. There was no clear winner standing up to claim victory, and no clear loser standing down. Instead there were two camps waiting for more votes to be counted, and a set of smaller parties celebrating record results of their own. The same appetite for political change can be seen in other parts of the world too, as our report on Paraguay, where the senate removed Pena and Alliana was sworn in under house arrest, shows how quickly leadership can shift.
Who won the New Zealand election?
Nobody has officially won yet. On the preliminary count, with 91.2 per cent of voting places counted, National leads Labour by 29.4 per cent to 29.1 per cent. The seat projection gives the governing coalition 66 of 129 seats, a majority of one. But more than 172,000 special votes are still to be counted, and the official results will not be declared until 27 November.
How many seats does the coalition need to govern?
The coalition needs 65 seats in a Parliament of 129 seats. The current projection gives National 41 seats, ACT 13 seats and New Zealand First 12 seats, a total of 66 seats. That is a majority of just one seat, which means the coalition cannot afford to lose a single vote in Parliament.
Why could the result still change?
More than 172,000 special votes are not included in the election night count. Special votes have historically favoured the left, so they could narrow the gap between National and Labour and move the seat projection. A shift of one seat would be enough to remove the coalition majority of one.
Which smaller parties did best?
The Greens won a record 13.3 per cent of the party vote, and ACT won a record 11.0 per cent. New Zealand First won 9.8 per cent. The Opportunity Party won 5.9 per cent, enough to enter Parliament for the first time with seven seats. Te Pati Maori won only 0.6 per cent of the party vote but took five electorate seats, which brought it into Parliament.
Sources
Final Thoughts
New Zealand has voted, and the country is still waiting for the answer. National leads Labour by a fraction of a per cent, and the coalition holds a majority of a single seat on the projection. The Greens and ACT have recorded their best results ever, the Opportunity Party has entered Parliament for the first time, and Te Pati Maori has turned five electorate wins into a real presence in the next Parliament.
The real test of this election will come on 27 November, when the official results are declared and the special votes are finally included. Until then, the only honest description of the result is that National is narrowly ahead, the coalition leads by one seat, and the final tally could still change the balance.
