Labour leads National in the party vote, but the governing coalition still holds a bare majority on seats. With 39.8 percent counted at 9.05pm on Saturday, November 7, 2026, Labour stood at 29.88 percent and National at 29.35 percent, a gap of about 8,000 votes. Because National won far more electorate seats than its party vote share would normally earn, overhang seats push Parliament out to 131 seats, and the National, ACT and New Zealand First coalition holds 66 of them, exactly the number needed to govern. The count is still moving, the lead is narrow, and nothing is decided yet.
Quick Facts
| Detail | Figure at 9.05pm, November 7, 2026 |
|---|---|
| Votes counted | 1,513,012, or 39.8 percent of the total |
| Voting places reporting | 35.2 percent |
| Labour party vote | 29.88 percent |
| National party vote | 29.35 percent |
| Gap between Labour and National | About 8,000 votes |
| Greens | 14.06 percent |
| ACT | 10.54 percent |
| New Zealand First | 9.35 percent |
| Opportunity Party | 5.42 percent |
| Te Pati Maori | 0.6 percent |
| Projected Parliament size | 131 seats, so 66 seats are needed to govern |
| Projected coalition seats | National 42, ACT 13, New Zealand First 11, a combined 66 |
| Projected opposition seats | Labour 36, Greens 17, Te Pati Maori 5, a combined 58 |
| Opportunity Party seats | 7 seats |
| Official results due | November 27, 2026 |
Labour Leads National: What the 9.05pm Count Showed
The Electoral Commission results feed at 9.05pm on Saturday gave the clearest picture yet of a very close election. By that point 1,513,012 votes had been counted, which the commission put at 39.8 percent of the total vote. Only 35.2 percent of voting places had reported, so most of the country was still to come.
Labour sat at 29.88 percent of the party vote. National sat at 29.35 percent. The gap between them was about 8,000 votes, a tiny difference in a national count of more than 1.5 million votes. In an election this tight, a gap of that size is a lead, not a verdict.
The smaller parties also mattered a great deal. The Greens held 14.06 percent, ACT held 10.54 percent, and New Zealand First held 9.35 percent. The Opportunity Party held 5.42 percent, just above the 5 percent threshold it needs to enter Parliament without winning an electorate seat. Te Pati Maori held 0.6 percent, but its strength sits in the Maori electorates rather than in the nationwide party vote.
Live updates after the 9.05pm snapshot put the count past 50 percent, with Labour still narrowly ahead at about 29.5 percent to 29.4 percent. All precise figures in this article come from the 9.05pm snapshot.
How the Lead Flipped During the Night
The flip is the story of the night so far. When the count first began to report, National was ahead. With 5.7 percent of the vote counted, National led Labour by 31.58 percent to 28.37 percent. That early lead looked clear, and it set the tone for the first hour of coverage. Our early results report from when National led with 5.7 percent counted captured that moment, when the two main parties were already close but National was in front.
As more votes arrived, the gap closed. The early figures were dominated by advance votes, and nearly 1.67 million people had voted before election day. Advance votes are counted first on election night, so the first numbers reflect early voters rather than people who voted on the day itself.
The final pre-election poll, published on Friday, had pointed in the same direction. It put Labour on 30.7 percent and National on 26.4 percent, with Opportunity holding the balance. The campaign centred on the cost of living and the economy. Prime Minister Christopher Luxon leads National and is seeking a second term with coalition partners ACT and New Zealand First. Chris Hipkins leads Labour.
Overhang Seats and the 131-Seat Parliament Explained in Plain Words
New Zealand uses a voting system called MMP, which stands for mixed member proportional. Every voter casts two votes. One is the party vote, which decides how many seats each party should get in Parliament overall. The other is the electorate vote, which picks the local member of Parliament for each area.
Sometimes the two votes do not line up, and that is what has happened here. At 9.05pm National was leading in 42 of the 71 electorates, more electorate seats than its party vote share of 29.35 percent would normally earn. Under the rules, National keeps every electorate seat it wins and gets no list members. Every electorate win above its proportional share becomes an overhang seat.
The overhangs push Parliament out to 131 seats on the 9.05pm numbers, well above the usual 120 seats. Because Parliament is bigger, the number of seats needed to govern grows too. With 131 seats in the house, a party or coalition needs 66 seats for a majority, not 61. That single fact changes the whole shape of the night.
On the 9.05pm projection, National holds 42 seats, ACT holds 13 seats, and New Zealand First holds 11 seats. Added together, that is 66 seats, exactly the number needed to govern. It is a bare majority, with no seat to spare. Labour holds 36 seats, the Greens hold 17 seats, and Te Pati Maori holds 5 seats, a combined 58 seats. The Opportunity Party holds 7 seats.
The Smaller Parties and the 5 Percent Threshold
The smaller parties are not a side note in this election. They decide whether either big party can govern. The Greens, on 14.06 percent, are the third largest party on the party vote and a central part of the opposition bloc. ACT, on 10.54 percent, and New Zealand First, on 9.35 percent, are the two partners that carry National to its bare majority on the projection.
The Opportunity Party is the most interesting story among the smaller parties. At 5.42 percent it sits just above the 5 percent threshold that a party needs to enter Parliament without winning an electorate seat. If it stays above that line, it enters Parliament with 7 seats on the projection. If it slips below the line in the final count, it would lose those seats and the whole shape of Parliament would change.
Te Pati Maori shows why the party vote alone does not tell the whole story. Its party vote of 0.6 percent is far below the threshold, but it still holds 5 seats on the projection because of its strength in the Maori electorates. The balance of power is still open. Opportunity holds 7 seats, and neither the coalition bloc on 66 seats nor the opposition bloc on 58 seats can ignore a party of that size. For a closer look at how fast political fortunes can change elsewhere in the world this week, read our report on Paraguay, where the senate removed Pena and Alliana was sworn in under house arrest.
Key Electorate Races to Watch
Two electorate races show how different the contest looks from place to place. In Marlborough, National candidate Stuart Smith led Labour candidate Matt Flight by more than 5,400 votes with more than 36 percent counted. That is a wide margin in a single seat.
In Hutt South the picture was the opposite. Labour candidate Ginny Andersen led National candidate Chris Bishop by 828 votes with 43.5 percent counted. That is a close race, and it carries extra weight because Chris Bishop is a senior National figure.
The count is still moving, and the order of the two big parties could change several times before the night is out. The Electoral Commission expects to report preliminary results from 50 percent of voting places by 10pm local time. Even then, the night will not give a final answer. More than 172,000 special votes, including overseas voters and people voting outside their electorate, are not part of the election night count. In the United States, the cabinet picture has also shifted quickly, as covered in our report on Trump, 60 Minutes, and the cabinet shakeup involving Wiles and Hegseth.
Is Labour the winner of the New Zealand election?
No. Labour leads National on the party vote at 39.8 percent counted, but the count is still moving and the governing coalition still leads on seats. No party can be called the winner until far more votes are counted.
How can National be behind on votes but ahead on seats?
National leads in 42 of the 71 electorates, more seats than its 29.35 percent party vote share would normally earn. Those extra electorate wins become overhang seats, which push Parliament to 131 seats and give the coalition 66 seats, exactly the number needed to govern.
What is an overhang seat?
An overhang seat is an extra seat created when a party wins more electorate seats than its party vote share would normally give it. The party keeps all its electorate seats, gets no list members, and Parliament grows larger to fit the extra seats. On the 9.05pm numbers, the overhangs take Parliament to 131 seats.
When will the final result be known?
The official results are due on November 27, 2026. Special votes are counted after election night, and there may be no new government until after the official results and coalition negotiations are complete. A TVNZ projection gave the coalition a narrow one seat lead over the opposition.
Sources
The figures in this article come from the Electoral Commission results feed as reported at 9.05pm on Saturday, November 7, 2026, and from the reporting linked below.
- Newswire: New Zealand election night 2026, Labour, National and the overhang count
- AAP News: Kiwis set to decide closest NZ election in a generation
- TBS News: New Zealand election early count shows two main parties near deadlocked
Final Thoughts
This is an election night that refuses to settle. Labour has taken the lead in the party vote, and that is a real change from the early count, when National was ahead by a clear margin. Yet the coalition still holds a bare majority on seats, thanks to overhangs that have stretched Parliament to 131 seats. Both facts are true at the same time, and both could change before the night is out.
The honest reading of the night is that the result is too close to call. The gap between Labour and National is about 8,000 votes out of more than 1.5 million counted. The coalition majority is a single seat above the line. The Opportunity Party sits less than half a point above the threshold. Special votes are still to come, the official results are weeks away, and coalition talks may follow.
What is clear is that New Zealand voters have delivered one of the closest elections in a generation. The cost of living and the economy dominated the campaign, and the country split almost evenly on which side should lead. As the count moves toward the preliminary results expected by 10pm, the lead may flip again.
