Decision Desk HQ has projected City Councilwoman Nithya Raman as the winner of the Los Angeles mayoral race, defeating incumbent Mayor Karen Bass. The projection was made on Wednesday evening, November 4, 2026, at 7:49 PM EST. Raman led with 405,193 votes, or 51.67 percent, against 379,069 votes, or 48.33 percent, for Bass. The margin was 26,124 votes, about 3.3 percentage points. If the result stands, Raman will become the 44th mayor of Los Angeles and the first Asian American mayor in the history of the city.
Quick Facts
| Projected winner | Nithya Raman, Los Angeles City Councilwoman |
| Incumbent defeated | Mayor Karen Bass |
| Projection made by | Decision Desk HQ |
| Date and time of projection | Wednesday, November 4, 2026, at 7:49 PM EST |
| Raman votes | 405,193 votes, 51.67 percent |
| Bass votes | 379,069 votes, 48.33 percent |
| Margin | 26,124 votes, about 3.3 percentage points |
| Votes tabulated at projection | Roughly 784,000 votes, an estimated 67 to 72 percent of expected ballots counted |
| Status of result | Projection, not certification; Los Angeles County was still processing mail and provisional ballots |
| Expected certification | County scheduled to certify on November 27 |
| Historic first | Raman would be the first Asian American mayor of Los Angeles and the 44th mayor overall |
| Raman age and background | 45, Kerala born, Harvard educated, Harvard and MIT trained urban planner |
| Bass age and record | 73, first female mayor of Los Angeles and second Black mayor, serving one term |
| Primary result | June 2, 2026: Bass 292,593 votes, 34.3 percent; Raman 247,781 votes, 29.0 percent |
| Next big event in the city | Los Angeles will host the 2028 Summer Olympics during Raman’s term |
How the Race Flipped Overnight
Bass led in the first results on Tuesday night. That early lead did not last. As more ballots were counted overnight, Raman moved ahead of the incumbent and stayed ahead. The change was driven by later counted ballots, and Raman’s lead was expected to grow as mail in ballots were processed. It was the kind of slow shift that often happens in California elections, where mail ballots are counted after election night.
By Wednesday evening, the count had reached roughly 784,000 votes, an estimated 67 to 72 percent of the ballots expected in the race. Raman held 405,193 votes, or 51.67 percent, while Bass held 379,069 votes, or 48.33 percent. The gap between them was 26,124 votes, about 3.3 percentage points. Decision Desk HQ made its projection at 7:49 PM EST on Wednesday, November 4. A projection is not the same as certification, and the county was scheduled to certify the result on November 27. The result fits a wider pattern of close contests in the 2026 elections, as seen in our report on midterm 2026 historic firsts and the Democrats sweep.
Who Is Nithya Raman
Nithya Raman is 45 years old. She was born in Kerala, India, and she was educated at Harvard. She trained as an urban planner at Harvard and at MIT, and she built her public life around housing and homelessness in Los Angeles. Before she entered elected office, she founded a Los Angeles homelessness nonprofit and served as its leader. She later served as executive director of Time’s Up.
Raman won her seat on the Los Angeles City Council in 2020, where housing and affordability stayed at the center of her work. If the projection stands, Raman will be the first Asian American mayor in the history of the city, and the 44th mayor overall. Raman held her election night party on November 3 at the Greek Theatre in Griffith Park. At the party, she spoke against the cynicism that made people believe the city’s problems were permanent.
Karen Bass and One Term in Office
Karen Bass is 73 years old. She was the first female mayor of Los Angeles and the second Black mayor in the history of the city. She served one term in the mayor’s office. Her election in 2022 was itself a historic moment, and her time as mayor was shaped by some of the biggest challenges the city has faced in recent years.
Bass came to the mayor’s office with a long record in public service, including time in Congress and in the California State Assembly. Her single term was marked by the issues that dominated the 2026 campaign: housing and affordability, the entertainment industry exodus, with production and jobs leaving Los Angeles, and her response to the Palisades wildfire. Losing after one term is a rare outcome for a Los Angeles mayor, and it is a sign of how unsettled voters felt about the direction of the city.
The Issues That Shaped the Campaign
Housing and affordability were the central issues of the race. Los Angeles has some of the highest housing costs in the country, and many residents struggle to pay rent or to buy a home. Homelessness remains visible across the city, and voters want to see real progress on both fronts. Raman built her campaign around those issues, drawing on her work as a planner and as the founder of a homelessness nonprofit. Bass also made housing a priority, but voters had to judge her record in office against the promises made by her challenger.
The entertainment industry exodus was another major issue. Los Angeles is the home of Hollywood, and when production moves elsewhere, jobs leave with it. Bass’s response to the Palisades wildfire was the third major issue, testing the city’s emergency response and recovery. The result also fits into a wider national picture in which voters in 2026 have been willing to back challengers. In Texas, a long held seat changed hands, as covered in our report on Bobby Pulido and the Texas 15th Congress flip. In Ohio, an incumbent also lost his reelection bid, as covered in our report on Max Miller losing his Ohio reelection to Poindexter.
What the Primary Told Us
The June 2 nonpartisan primary set the shape of the general election. Bass finished first with 292,593 votes, or 34.3 percent. Raman finished second with 247,781 votes, or 29.0 percent. The gap between them was about 45,000 votes, and it gave Bass a clear lead going into the fall. But the primary also showed that most voters had not chosen either candidate. Together, Bass and Raman took about 63 percent of the primary vote, which meant that more than a third of voters had backed someone else.
Former reality TV star Spencer Pratt was among the candidates eliminated in the primary. His presence in the race drew attention, but he did not advance to the general election. The primary narrowed the field to Bass and Raman. Raman needed to win over voters who had backed other candidates in June, and the final tally suggests that she did. She moved from 247,781 votes in the primary to 405,193 votes in the general election. Bass also added support, moving from 292,593 votes to 379,069 votes, but she added less, and the gap closed and then reversed.
What Happens Next
The next step is certification. Los Angeles County officials were still processing mail and provisional ballots after the projection, and the county was scheduled to certify the result on November 27. Certification is the formal step that confirms the vote count and makes the result official. Until that date, the result remains a projection, even though the lead is clear and the projection was made by a respected decision desk.
Once the result is certified, Raman will prepare to take office as the 44th mayor of Los Angeles, building a team and setting priorities for housing, affordability, and emergency preparedness. The city will also need to prepare for the 2028 Summer Olympics, which Los Angeles will host during Raman’s term, shaping planning for transport, housing, security, and public services. For Bass, the next step is the end of her time as mayor after one term, having made history as the first female mayor and the second Black mayor of Los Angeles.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won the Los Angeles mayoral race?
Decision Desk HQ projected Nithya Raman as the winner on Wednesday evening, November 4, 2026, at 7:49 PM EST. Raman led with 405,193 votes, or 51.67 percent, against 379,069 votes, or 48.33 percent, for incumbent Mayor Karen Bass. The result is a projection, not a certification, and Los Angeles County was scheduled to certify the result on November 27.
What is historic about Nithya Raman’s projected win?
If the result stands, Raman will become the 44th mayor of Los Angeles and the first Asian American mayor in the history of the city. She is 45, Kerala born, Harvard educated, and trained as an urban planner at Harvard and MIT. She founded a Los Angeles homelessness nonprofit and served as executive director of Time’s Up before winning her City Council seat in 2020.
How close was the race between Raman and Bass?
The margin was 26,124 votes, about 3.3 percentage points, with roughly 784,000 votes tabulated at the time of the projection. That was an estimated 67 to 72 percent of the ballots expected in the race. Bass led in the first results on Tuesday night, but Raman overtook her overnight as more ballots were counted, and her lead was expected to grow as mail in ballots were processed.
When will the Los Angeles mayoral result be official?
Los Angeles County officials continued to process mail and provisional ballots after the projection. Official certification was not expected until later in the month, and the county was scheduled to certify the result on November 27. Until certification, the result should be described as projected.
Sources
This article is based on reporting from the New York Post, The Rico TV and USA Today. The New York Post report is available at New York Post, The Rico TV report is available at The Rico TV, and the USA Today report is available at USA Today.
Final Thoughts
The projection of Nithya Raman as the winner of the Los Angeles mayoral race is a major moment for the city. Raman led with 405,193 votes, or 51.67 percent, against 379,069 votes, or 48.33 percent, for Karen Bass, a margin of 26,124 votes. Bass led on Tuesday night, Raman moved ahead overnight, and Decision Desk HQ made the call on Wednesday evening, November 4, at 7:49 PM EST. The result is still a projection, with certification scheduled for November 27. If it stands, Los Angeles will have its 44th mayor and its first Asian American mayor, a 45 year old planner and councilwoman who built her career around housing and homelessness, leading the city into the 2028 Summer Olympics.
