China trade surplus reached $1.04 trillion in the first ten months of 2026. The figure was released by China’s General Administration of Customs on Tuesday, November 10, 2026. It means China passed the $1 trillion mark for a second straight year, and it reached the milestone a month earlier than in 2025, when it was reached in November. October was a strong month for trade in both directions. Exports rose 35.2 percent year on year in US dollar terms to $412.3 billion. Imports jumped 41.6 percent to $307.1 billion. The monthly surplus in October was about $105.3 billion, down from $133.5 billion in September as imports picked up. China is now well on track to surpass the record $1.2 trillion surplus hit in 2025.
Quick Facts
| Item | Detail |
|---|---|
| Reporting body | General Administration of Customs |
| Release date | Tuesday, November 10, 2026 |
| Surplus, January to October 2026 | $1.04 trillion |
| October exports | $412.3 billion, up 35.2 percent year on year |
| October imports | $307.1 billion, up 41.6 percent year on year |
| October monthly surplus | About $105.3 billion |
| September monthly surplus | $133.5 billion |
| Total trade, January to October 2026 | Up 20 percent year on year |
| Record surplus in 2025 | $1.2 trillion |
What the October Numbers Show
October brought a sharp rise in both exports and imports, and the balance between the two still left a large monthly surplus. Exports rose 35.2 percent year on year in US dollar terms to $412.3 billion. That result was ahead of the 33.5 percent forecast, and it was only a touch slower than the 36.3 percent surge in September. The pace stayed close to the very strong level seen in the month before, even after such a large jump.
Imports rose even faster in percentage terms. October imports jumped 41.6 percent to $307.1 billion, far above the 32 percent expected. Because imports grew faster than exports in October, the monthly surplus narrowed. It was about $105.3 billion in October, down from $133.5 billion in September. That change does not mean trade weakened. It means the two sides of trade moved together at a high level, and the surplus remained large by any normal measure.
The strength was not limited to China alone, as Taiwan also reported record October exports in the same period. That wider picture matters because it shows that demand for technology goods was strong across the region, not only in one market. Total trade also kept moving higher. Total trade grew 20 percent year on year in January to October, accelerating from 18.8 percent in the first nine months. The faster pace for the ten month period shows that the improvement was not only about October. Trade had already been growing through the year, and October added to that trend.
How AI Demand Powered the Export Surge
The main driver behind the export strength was the global race to build AI infrastructure. That race powered exports of high tech goods, including computer chips, data centre servers and networking equipment. These are the building blocks of modern AI systems, and demand for them has stayed strong as companies and governments invest in more computing power.
This demand helped offset weak demand at home and a protracted property slump. In simple terms, sales abroad helped balance softer conditions inside China. When home demand is weak, exports can carry more weight for factories and suppliers. When the property market stays weak for a long time, that balance becomes even more important, because it gives producers another source of orders.
The AI story also helps explain why export growth stayed so high in October. Building AI infrastructure is not a one off purchase. It needs chips, servers, networking equipment and related parts in large numbers, and it needs them again and again as systems grow. That kind of steady, large scale buying can support export figures month after month, rather than producing a single short spike and then fading away.
Strong exports do not remove the problems at home. Weak demand at home and a protracted property slump remain part of the background. What the October data show is that foreign demand, led by AI infrastructure, was strong enough to keep overall trade moving higher despite those pressures.
Trade With the United States and Europe
Trade with the United States stayed large in October, even as the bilateral surplus eased slightly. The surplus with the United States eased slightly to about $33 billion in October from $34 billion in September. Exports to the United States surged 32.9 percent in October, which shows that sales to the American market remained strong in the month.
A small fall in the monthly surplus with the United States, from $34 billion to about $33 billion, is a modest change when set against the size of the flows involved. It came in a month when imports also rose sharply, so the narrower surplus fits the wider pattern seen in the overall October figures. Exports were strong, imports were stronger in percentage terms, and the surplus narrowed a little as a result.
Trade with Europe told a different story over the longer ten month period. The surplus with the 27 nation European Union reached $310.7 billion in January to October, up from $241.6 billion in the same period last year. That is a large rise over the same period a year earlier, and it shows how much the balance with the bloc has grown across the year as a whole.
EU leaders have called for more trade curbs after an agreement with Beijing to limit Chinese exports of hybrid vehicles to the bloc over the next few years. That call points to the tension that can follow a large and growing surplus. When one side sells much more than it buys, the other side often looks for ways to limit the flow, and the debate over hybrid vehicles is one example of that pressure in practice.
The Truce Extension and the APEC Meeting Ahead
China on Monday, November 9, officially announced a two month extension of its trade truce with Washington, which was due to expire on November 10. The timing matters because the announcement came just before the old deadline. A two month extension gives both sides more time without a return to the harsher measures that a truce is meant to hold back, and it keeps the focus on talks rather than a sudden break.
Beijing also moved on a separate trade front, with a pause on rare earth export controls forming part of the recent easing in trade tensions. Rare earth controls have been a sensitive part of trade talks, because the materials are used in many high tech products. A pause in that area fits the same pattern as the truce extension, with both sides looking for room to keep trade moving while talks continue.
President Xi Jinping and President Donald Trump are expected to meet at the APEC summit in Shenzhen next week, their third meeting this year. A third meeting in one year shows how often the two leaders have needed to talk in person as trade issues have stayed near the top of the agenda. The meeting comes after the truce extension and after the strong October trade figures, so trade will be a central part of the discussion.
What Comes Next for the China Trade Surplus
Analysts expect exports to accelerate in the fourth quarter before slowing from early 2027. That view suggests the strong run may have further to go in the short term, with the final months of 2026 still showing fast export growth. It also suggests a change in early 2027, when the pace is expected to slow.
Joe Peissel, lead macroeconomist at Trivium China, commented on the figures. Zhiwei Zhang, president and chief economist at Pinpoint Asset Management, also commented. Their comments came as markets and businesses tried to read what the October numbers mean for the months ahead, and how long the current pace can last.
China is well on track to surpass the record $1.2 trillion surplus hit in 2025. That target is now in clear view after ten months at $1.04 trillion. The full year figure will depend on how November and December perform, and on whether the expected acceleration in the fourth quarter comes through as analysts expect.
Frequently Asked Questions
How large was China’s trade surplus in January to October 2026?
China’s trade surplus reached $1.04 trillion in January to October 2026. It topped $1 trillion for a second straight year and reached the milestone a month earlier than in 2025, when it was reached in November.
Why did exports rise so sharply in October?
October exports rose 35.2 percent year on year to $412.3 billion. The global race to build AI infrastructure powered exports of high tech goods, including computer chips, data centre servers and networking equipment.
What happened to trade with the United States and Europe?
The surplus with the United States eased slightly to about $33 billion in October from $34 billion in September, while exports to the United States surged 32.9 percent. The surplus with the 27 nation European Union reached $310.7 billion in January to October, up from $241.6 billion in the same period last year.
What happens next for trade and talks?
China announced a two month extension of its trade truce with Washington on Monday, November 9. President Xi Jinping and President Donald Trump are expected to meet at the APEC summit in Shenzhen next week. Analysts expect exports to accelerate in the fourth quarter before slowing from early 2027.
Sources
Final Thoughts
China passed $1 trillion in trade surplus in ten months, a month earlier than last year, on the back of strong AI led exports. October showed both sides of trade moving fast, with exports up 35.2 percent and imports up 41.6 percent, and a monthly surplus of about $105.3 billion. With a truce extension in place and a meeting in Shenzhen next week, the next chapter will be about talks as much as trade. If exports speed up in the fourth quarter as analysts expect, China is well placed to pass the record $1.2 trillion surplus from 2025.
